Why GERS Shows the Need for Independence – and for a Scottish Research Institute

The publication of the latest Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) statistics has once again sparked debate about Scotland’s finances. Each year, the UK Government presents these figures as if they were an objective snapshot of Scotland’s economic health. Yet what they truly show is the cost of Scotland remaining tied into a Westminster system that makes the big financial decisions for us – often against our best interests.

GERS is not a set of national accounts for an independent Scotland. It is an estimate of how much revenue is raised in Scotland and how much is spent on Scotland’s behalf – including billions on immoral nuclear weapons at Faslane. It also includes debt repayments and the cost of decisions made in Whitehall that Scotland had no say over.

The latest figures highlight several key points:

• Devolved revenue is growing strongly – up 9.7% compared with a 6.8% rise in expenditure. This is the fourth consecutive year that revenues have grown faster than spending under the SNP Government’s stewardship.
• Scotland generates more tax per head than most of the UK – we are behind only London and the South East.
• But GERS reflects the UK constitutional framework – including decisions Scotland did not choose, such as Brexit, which has cost us an estimated £2.3 billion in lost revenue, and higher UK Government debt payments adding a further £500 million to our deficit.

In short, the report shows that while Scotland is performing well within the powers we do control, the real drag on our finances comes from decisions imposed by Westminster.

The Bigger Problem: GERS Isn’t Scotland’s Future

Economists including Professor Richard Murphy have long warned that GERS is not a reliable guide to what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like. It is a backward-looking set of estimates, not a forward-looking economic plan. Former Finance Secretary Kate Forbes has also been clear: GERS tells us about Scotland in the Union, not about Scotland as an independent country with its own policies.

That is why I believe it is time to take the next step. If Scotland is to make informed choices about our economic future, we need a dedicated Scottish Research Institute tasked with carrying out detailed, Scotland-specific economic analysis. Such an institute could:

• Provide independent, credible research on Scotland’s fiscal position.
• Model the impact of independence policies – including currency, trade, and industrial strategy.
• Lay the groundwork for the creation of a Scottish Central Bank, which will be vital in securing financial stability in an independent Scotland.

This is not a theoretical exercise. Other small, independent nations have benefited from similar institutions that underpin their decision-making. For Scotland, establishing a Research Institute would be a vital first step in building the robust financial infrastructure required for independence.

A Clear Choice

The GERS figures should not be used to talk Scotland down. Instead, they should serve as a reminder of the opportunities we are missing. Every year that Scotland remains tied to Westminster, we are burdened with decisions like Trident, Brexit, and unsustainable debt repayments that do not reflect Scotland’s values or priorities.

With independence, we would have the power to grow our economy in line with our own needs – tackling child poverty, driving the green energy transition, and creating a fairer, more prosperous society.

But to make that case with confidence, we need the tools to model our own future. That’s why I will continue to call for the establishment of a Scottish Research Institute – a stepping stone towards the central bank and economic framework an independent Scotland will require.

Because decisions about Scotland’s economy should be made in Scotland – by the people who live here.